La Vista, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

479
FXUS63 KOAX 160506
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms gradually taper off early this morning.

- Warm Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Strong
  to severe storm chances expected for the afternoon (30%) and
  evening hours, with more storms possible in the late evening
  and overnight (60-80%).

- Continued threat for severe storms Sunday and Monday with all
  hazards possible.

- Temperatures cool down for Tuesday through Thursday in the 60s
  and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

0448z KOAX radar imagery nicely depicts a frontal boundary extending
from near Cortland northeast toward Nebraska City and Red Oak, IA.
Convection has largely weakened along this front at this hour,
and should continue to push east southeast into western IA.

As we head into early Saturday morning, should see an H5 longwave
trof over the western US undergo considerable deepening. As the
longwave deepens, should see a few shortwaves eject ahead of the
main longwave base, while at the sfc, lee cyclogenesis ensues over
Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle area. Closer to home, the sfc
boundary will linger over the forecast area with most locations
reaching highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Expect to see a
reservoir of 2,000 to 3,000 j/kg of MLCAPE pooling near and just
ahead of the sfc boundary by the afternoon. Along with the steep
lapse rates and strong 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts, should see
supercells develop with the potential for large hail, damaging
winds, and the potential for a tornado. The latest SPC outlooks show
a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for much of eastern Nebraska into
western Iowa.

Latest CAM guidance still shows some discrepancies regarding
afternoon convection, however. Models such as the NAMNest, HiRes
FV3, NSSL WRF, and HiRes ARW keep the baroclinic zone farther south
over southeast Nebraska and ignite convection there. Notably, the
HRRR ignites convection farther north over northeast Nebraska given
the more northward placement of the baroclinic zone. Will also need
to pay attention to the late evening into the overnight hours.
Severe convection associated with the primary sfc low over northeast
Colorado should blossom by 00z, congealing into an MCS and pushing
east over much of central into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
While damaging winds will be the main threat with the feature
overnight, flash flooding is certainly plausible, particularly over
urban areas where they see repeated passage/training of storms. PoPs
for Saturday remain at around 30% in the afternoon but really ramp
up to 60 to 80% areawide after 00z. Regarding rainfall amounts,
should see anywhere from a quarter to half inch of rain, with a
few locations in western Iowa seeing closer to an inch.

For Sunday, will see the longwave trof continue to deepen, with
another shortwave ejecting from the Rockies area northeast toward
the Panhandle. The H8 low should intensify with a strong low level
jet developing on the eastern periphery. This should help bring in
increased moisture transport along with strong warm advection,
helping push highs into the low to mid 90s. Winds will also be
fairly strong out of the south at 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40
mph. While these strong winds may lead to some spots across eastern
Nebraska reaching Red Flag criteria, these appear to be
collocated in areas where previous rainfall and ongoing green-
up has reduced risk of rapid fire spread.

Instability will pool in the warm sector of the approaching sfc low
ranging from 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg and combined with the strong shear
of 45 to 50 kts, will again see a threat for severe convection. The
potent 40-55 kt LLJ should help increase low level curvature in
hodographs as seen per BUFKIT soundings. Combined with 25 to 30 kts
of 0-1 km bulk shear and ~200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, should see the
potential for tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging
winds. The convective environment will likely be influenced by how
Saturday plays out and any remaining morning convection, so please
make sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates. At this
time, SPC has an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk of severe storms
particularly over northeast Nebraska, with a Slight (level 2 of 5)
encompassing the rest of the area. PoPs gradually increase Sunday
afternoon to 50%, with 60 to 80% PoPs areawide by the evening hours.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

For Monday, severe potential will continue over a large portion of
the forecast area. Similar to previous days, another shortwave
ejects towards the Central Plains, inducing lee sfc cyclogenesis
with a boundary extending through the forecast area. Strong bulk
shear of 50 to 60 kts combined with an abundant amount of sfc based
CAPE will lead to this continued threat. Similar to Sunday, all
hazards will be on the table in addition to a continued flash flood
threat.

Quiet conditions are forecast for the rest of the long term forecast
period with temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s. Thursday may
see our far northwest counties being clipped by some 20% PoPs but
most remain dry. Expect a warming trend to take place by Friday and
thereafter as indicated by the latest CPC outlooks.

Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the
extended with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will hold through the early half of the TAF
period, with ongoing storm and shower activity to continue
dissipating and shifting eastward. Winds overnight will be
largely out of the northeast, with speeds expected to slow below
10 kts by 06z. By late morning or just around noon, wind
directions will be crossing back easterly, then east-southeast
with increasing winds into the afternoon. Gust speeds at KOFK
will be highest between 20-25 kts, while KOMA and KLNK reach
near 20 kts. Another round of storms is set to develop around to
just after 00z tomorrow evening, moving into KOFK and KLNK from
the west while KOMA sees them pop up more so overhead before
the activity moves southeast. Additional showers and storms are
possible into the overnight hours after 06z as wind speeds
slowly increase, but the TAFs will focus on the higher odds
activity beforehand due to greater confidence in their
timing/location.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Petersen